THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAS PREDICTABLE

To Fellow members of the Human Species,

This is a rather crude chart I made in 1984 when I was a science educator.  I created it to illustrate what could happen if the population of humans continued its exponential increase into the future.  I warned my students that "you may in your lifetime see some of the options this chart presents.” I did not expect I would live long enough to experience them myself.

TRENDS OVER TIME---

The RED CURVE is human population growth over time. At the beginning of modern agriculture about 10,000 years ago there were perhaps one million people on planet Earth.  That is probably about the number the planet could sustain as hunters and gatherers.    Agriculture allowed for organized  settlements that provided increased safety and a  reliable food supply. The population of humans increased gradually as modern civilization progressed, but did not rise sharply until modern medicine came on the scene in the 1800's.  The human population in 1984 was 4.7 billion.  Today it is 7.7 billion.

The GREEN CURVE is agriculture.  Over time our creativity and the Earth's natural resources have combined to provide us with a generous variety of plant and animal food items that we have used to keep ourselves well fed and generally healthy.  This curve has kept ahead of human demand, but at a cost.  We are using the Earth's resources to produce our food supply, but at an unsustainable rate.  

The BROWN CURVE is the Earth's Natural Resources. Their use accelerated with the  beginning of the industrial revolution, and the onslaught of modern civilization. We have exploited oil, coal, natural gas, metals, water, land and air in our efforts to conquer the planet and use its resources to produce a lot of people with a lot of  "stuff", without considering the consequences. 

MY VIEW---WHERE WE GO FROM HERE

The above chart illustrates 3 potential results for the human population when confronted with a pandemic at a time when we are already facing a crisis around our unsustainable economic system.

CURVE STRAIGHT DOWN. The Earth Abides (book by George R. Stewart) curve that illustrates a complete collapse of the population that could lead to human extinction or perhaps results in a few people who could survive by a return to a hunting, gathering existence. 

CURVE DOWN AT 45 DEGREE ANGLE.  Sharp gradual decline. 

CURVE LEVELS OFF.  In my opinion this is the most likely result of the COVID-19 virus pandemic  The disease so far is attacking the old (like me---I am 80), the sick, and the vulnerable. Children, young adults and those who are generally healthy are avoiding or recovering from this disease. I believe the longterm effects of the disease caused by the COVID-19 virus will be to keep human numbers close to a constant and more in tune with the resources the planet offers. This is a form of natural selection that will keep the human species fit and strong going into the future. Despite the deaths of many from this disease (maybe including myself) this is the best outcome we can expect from the trauma we are experiencing.

Since we as a species do not seem to have the moral or political will to control our population growth, COVID-19 IS GOING TO DO IT FOR US.