A   SHINING LIGHT

Naomi Hartzler was a shining light in my life and all others who had the privilege of knowing her. Her smile lit up a room and she was always optimistic and thinking of others.  My Brother Bob described her as "a kind, gentle person".  From the time I first met her in the Summer of 1946 until now, I loved her and considered her an important part of my family. On Friday December 18 I received an email from Sanford King (a relative) informing us that she had passed away. She was 94.

Earlier in December, when I decided to call friends and family Naomi was the first person my list.  I called her at the Valley View nursing home in Belleville where she lived as a resident. I called on Wednesday December 9. She answered with her cell phone and said she was in "rehab". She seemed surprised and happy with my call. She proceeded to explain to me why she was not in her room. She had gotten up from her bed to go to the bathroom, felt dizzy and fell. She said "I have some bruises but will be ok". I said I hoped she would get  better soon.  She did not sound sick.  Our conversation was short, but seemed normal.  

Friday evening after I received his e-mail, I spoke to Sanford on the phone.   According to Sanford, she had fallen in her terrace room on Sunday 12/6.  On Monday 12/7 she was tested for COVID-19, her test came back positive and she  was placed in the area of Valley View set aside for covid patients.  Her "rehab" was really the covid unit.  Sanford's wife who spoke to her regularly, said she reported on my phone call to her with “ You”ll never believe who called me---Dick Brown". Sanford reported that she grew weak and tired but did not really start to deteriorate until about 48 hours before her death. He said her voice was weak and she developed pneumonia.

 

Naomi Hartzler joined the Porter and Marian Brown family in the summer of 1946. My mother had become ill for reasons I did not understand, but I knew were serious because she was bedridden and very weak.  I remember seeing her in bed in the "good" room which was not normal.  This bedroom in our home was always reserved for guests who came to visit. Only much later would I learn that my mother's illness was actually a miscarriage. 

Somehow my Dad heard about Naomi and hired her to work for us in the summer of 1946.  This was always a very busy time with canning, freezing, gardening and lots of work to do. She quickly learned what needed to be done and for a time ran the household under my mother's direction. Mom  eventually was strong enough to move about the house and help Naomi with the work.  As time wore on and my mother regained her strength, she assumed full control and Naomi became more of an assistant doing the gardening and yard work as well as the normal household duties.  She remembered getting ready for silo filling when family and neighbors came to cut, haul and blow the corn into the silo for winter cattle food. She remembered it as a very busy time with lots of baking and other food preparation. 

Naomi spent most of the Fall working for my mother. My Dad picked her up Sunday evening, she lived and worked at our place until Friday evening when he would take her home to Allensville.  She lived in an apartment above Updegrove's General Store with her mother and Grandmother. I remember the stair as being long and steep.

When Naomi retired  she  and her sister bought a cottage at Valley View.  Her sister moved into the nursing home section, so Naomi had the house to herself.  Over the years when I would go to Big Valley, I made it a point to stop and visit for a time. She always seemed glad to see me and shared her memories and stories of her time with us.

She recalled my brother Bob, age three or so, standing at the doorway and asking "Nomi I want a peanut butter sandwich”. He would play outside, his feet would be dirty and if he came in with dirt on his feet he probably got yelled at, so he would balance himself on the door step and call in.  Naomi thought this was really funny. The first year, I believe she worked at our place until the holidays.

Naomi did not drive, so my folks decided she should learn how to drive a car. At the time we had a black 1940 Ford that my parents purchased before WWII. It had a gear shift  in the floor and was not easy to operate.  One day my Mother decided to give Naomi some driving lessons.  It did not go well---using a clutch, a brake and an accelerator did not come naturally to her.  After some jerky movements and "bunny hopping" Bob and I, who were sitting in the back seat started screaming:  We're all going to die". She never forgot the experience. 

Eventually she got the technique of driving to the point where she could take her driving test.  My Dad took her to Huntingdon for her test---she failed.  She had three learning permits and on the the third try she passed. Dad decided to let her drive home. He suggested that they stop and get the mail.  Our mailbox was positioned with several others in front of the Roxbury School. She drove up to get the mail and proceeded to mow them  all down. She was mortified. She eventually did buy a car and as far as I know she never had any other issues with driving. 

As far as I can remember Naomi worked for my Mother in the summer  in 1947 and again 1948 when my brother Fred was born. One thing I remember during that time was going to Bible School at the Mennonite Church Naomi attended.  It was interesting to see the men sit on one side of the church and the women and children on the other.

The last time Naomi worked for my folks was in January 1949 when my Dad and Mother went to Florida to celebrate their 10th wedding anniversary. My grandparents Fred and Margaret Brown went along.  They stayed about 2 weeks. Bob and I stayed with Aunt Anna Brown in our Grandparents house in Airy Dale. Naomi kept house and took care of  baby Fred.  Dad hired a local farmer to come each day to milk the cows and do the barn work. When they returned Grandma Margaret came home but Grandpa Fred stayed in Florida  and returned when the weather warmed.

Over the years Naomi continued to interact with us.  She came to our family gatherings, funerals and in recent years she joined us at the Metz Family Reunion.  She will be missed.

COLOR IS ONLY SKIN DEEP

As I was watching the tragedy of George Floyd unfold, I cringed with the many memories of past struggles for equal rights in the 50's, 60's and 70's.  Did I do enough to engage in the struggle? The answer is, no.  We all should have done and should do more.

I grew up in an all-white rural, agricultural community in South-central Pennsylvania. We rarely encountered people different from ourselves and were basically insulated from the happenings of the outside world.  My recollection of my first actual interaction with a student of color was at lunchtime when I was a teenager in high school. The school did not have a cafeteria so we had to carry lunch or go home to eat.  The Black student had to walk more than a mile to school, so he carried.  Our school was mostly white with just a few Black students.

When I see the anger and frustration of African-Americans and others, I wonder---Did I grow up with racism and not realize it? The answer is, Yes.  My grandfather's postcards from Florida, the black-face minstrel shows in the community building, the use of derogatory names for black people in everyday slang. These were not directed at Black folks, but demeaned and ridiculed their very existence anyway. 

I left my home and community in Big Valley in 1958 and have only returned for visits over the last 60+ years. I attended Pennsylvania State University for 4 years and during my stay, I encountered my first exposure to bigotry and racism from fellow students.  Unlike colleges in the South, there was no obvious segregation or any official actions to deny students their rightful education at Penn state. However in the dorms, bull sessions often broke out among students and race, being in the news, was often discussed.  I was shocked to hear the casual use of the N word and other racial slurs used by my fellow white students as they discussed the rights of minorities in our society. In 1961 I was privileged to be accepted into Koinonia, a Christian boarding house for Penn State students in State College. My housemates included a Mexican, an Indian, at least 2 African-Americans and others.  It is here where my growth and understanding developed. I lived there until I graduated in 1962.

In the Fall of 1962 I attended Seminary in Pittsburgh.  My desire to be a Christian Pastor waned over time and I decided to take a course in race relations instead of the language Hebrew.  The professor, an African-American, gave us a look into the "Black experience" that none of us had ever imagined. He assigned us the book "Black Like Me" by John Howard Griffin. Griffin was a white man who disguised himself as a Black man and chronicled the experience, giving a graphic look into the everyday lives of Black people in the rural South. 

During one classroom discussion it was revealed that more than 70% of the African-Americans living in the United States had white ancestors. Apparently, it was common for slave owners to rape their black women slaves, with the resulting children being added to the slave population. Thus, most Black people carry the "white"  blood of their oppressors.  This is a crime we can not erase from our history as a nation, but we must acknowledge it and move on to a more inclusive society.

In 1963 I started my teaching career in high school in a small town in central New Jersey.  I decided to attend the local Presbyterian Church one Sunday morning and was saddened by my experience.  I was alone, the congregation was all white and not one person spoke to me or said they were glad to have me attend.  I asked my landlady why there were not any Black people in the church.  Her  response---"They have their own church".  I did not return.

The last Sunday I was in town, I revved up the courage and went to the African-American church at the edge of the town. I stood out in this all black congregation and after the service began, the pastor acknowledged my presence. He welcomed me and asked if I wanted to say something? I stood up and mumbled something about being glad to share in their worship service. At the end as I was speaking to the pastor, it seemed to me that every member of the congregation came up to me, shook my hand and thanked me for coming to their church. 


During my 30+ years of teaching I usually had some Black students, but one stands out in my memory. He was the son of Black migrant workers in New Jersey. He was a bright and very funny kid who had a talent for telling jokes and making "wise cracks".  The problem was he would do it when I was trying to teach a lesson or explain something. After weeks of trying to get his cooperation and failing, I finally called the father---he said "Why didn't you call me earlier? I was embarrassed. The boy was a perfect student for the rest of the year.  From that point on when I had a problem student, I contacted the parents. It was my most effective move to change student behavior and I learned that lesson from a Black father who recognized the value of education for his son.

These experiences have molded my views of race, religion and politics ever since. I have lived a white-privileged life.  I will never be able to experience the anxiety, the fear, the sadness, and the general frustration minorities experience as they try to survive and prosper in a dominant "white" society. That they tolerate the inequities of the American system and work toward a more equitable future is a testament to the resoluteness of the human spirit in the face of extreme adversity.

The Creator has made us all different---no two of us are exactly the same (even "identical twins" are different in appearance.) "White" people are not really white, we are lightly colored---only albinos are truly white.  So human skin color is really just a spectrum from lighter to darker. (originally lighter at higher latitudes, darker near the equator). Skin color has been an obvious human difference and excuse for discrimination the world over for a very long time.

The human species is by its nature judgmental.  We judge other humans by their skin color, their hair, their size, their shape and the attractiveness of their bodies, their voice, their face, their eyes, their nose, etc. and out of these observations spring likes and dislikes.  Also out of these we get prejudice, racism and bigotry; and when you add the element of fear, you get the systemic anti-social behavior that leads to violence and death.  The challenge for the human species on planet Earth in the year 2020 and beyond is to accept and appreciate our many differences; and move to a more accepting place where we compete, but not fight, with each other.  It is my belief that the human species is being tested like never before and its future on planet Earth will be determined by how well we work together to make the world a better place for all.

    

TRIBALISM IS IN OUR DNA

TRIBALISM IS IN OUR DNA

I grew up in a farming community in South-Central Pennsylvania dominated by four groups of people. These folks were mostly defined by their religious beliefs and the churches they attended. Some of them also differed in dress and farming methods, but all were Protestant and were of the same race ("white").  The first 18 years of my life were spent in this agriculturally centered community.

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines a tribe as "a group of persons having a common character, occupation or interest." By that definition the 4 groups I grew up with could be defined as tribes.

The four groups included the Old-Order Amish, the Mennonites, the Lutherans and the Presbyterians. I started school in the Fall of 1945 by attending the local one-room red brick Concord School. Concord was my school home for 5 out of my first 6 years of public education. When I started I was the only student  in first grade. My classmates included Amish, Mennonites, Lutherans and Presbyterians (I was Presbyterian). All eight grades were taught by a Mennonite lady named Mrs Yoder. Older students often acted as assistants by giving tests, etc, but she ran the show.  I appreciated the education she gave me.

School was the ONLY place where the four tribes actually spent much time together. In school we studied together, visited together, and played games together; but once we left school grounds, we went back to the tribe.  The Amish to their horse and buggy, no electricity and German language; the Mennonites to their plain clothes, white bonnets and black cars; the Lutheran and Presbyterians back to their "English ways" of cars, electricity and tractors.

Anyone who visits a large city on this planet can readily observe that Homo sapiens are tribal.  We collect with people of a similar religion, language, culture, ethnicity, race, etc., because we are more comfortable around "people like us".

This United States is an amalgamation of hundreds of tribes from around the world.  From our beginnings in the 1600's to the twenty-first century, this land has been and continues to be a beacon of opportunity.  My ancestors came to America in the 1700's from Scotland and Germany and along with many others, helped settle what was then known as the frontier in central  Pennsylvania. Because this land was so vast, and the opportunities so great, people from all over the world have come here. Today, no other country on the planet has the wide diversity of humans that we do.  

For thousands of years the tribe has been our identity.  We were Christian, we were Jewish, we were Muslim, we were Hindu,
we were African, we were English, we were Japanese, we were Indian and it is a very long list. In the USA of today we are struggling with how we can all be identified as Americans. 

It is a work in progress. We are being tested like never before. The challenge we face is---can we retain the values and culture we cherish as a tribe and still be Americans? Can a nation with such wide diversity survive and prosper in the twenty-first century, or is the effort going to be abandoned as just too hard?  Our children and grandchildren will grade us on our success or failure.

COVID-19 IS GIVING US A RIDE LIKE NO OTHER

COVID-19 IS GIVING US A RIDE LIKE NO OTHER

In the year of 2020 the coronavirus called COVID-19 is in control of the human species.

What is a VIRUS? Viruses are part of the web of life that has  existed on Planet Earth for billions of years.  They exist on the edge between living matter and inorganic chemicals. A virus is considered a life form, but not a living organism. If we define a living organism as an entity that can reproduce itself, the virus does not qualify---it can't. A virus can not be called a chemical with a distinct formula such as ammonia or methane because it contains living matter. These mysterious entities act as parasites on many  forms of life and are able to attach themselves to the cells of other living things. They are then able to use the resources of those cells to reproduce copies of themselves. One virus particle is thus able to replicate itself exponentially, leading to diseases such as the one we are currently experiencing.  

The COVID-19 virus presently ravaging the human race is called a parasite because it uses us humans as its host, but does not usually kill us.  More than 90% of people who have had the disease caused by this virus have survived. Although this pandemic is killing thousands of people, the fact that most humans survive is a positive outcome; and would seem to portend good things for the human species's longterm survival. 

As a scientist I have found this pandemic to be a fascinating phenomena to observe. Here in the year 2020 we are seeing a tiny microscopic life form, the virus, bring the most advanced creature on the planet, the humans species, to its knees.  It is just a remarkable turn of events.

When asked what happens next, most knowledgeable people will tell you the COVID-19 VIRUS controls the future.  I believe this tiny life form is taking us on a ride like nothing this planet has ever experienced.

SCREEDS

NOTE: My son Andy calls my writings SCREEDS, which I believe is a cross between a scream and a rant. I am 80 years old, so I think I deserve  the opportunity to SCREED once in a while. I appreciate all of you who take the time to read my messages.  If any of you are offended  by what I write, I am sorry and if you do not want them sent to you, please let me know. 

RECKLESS VS CAREFUL, CAREFUL WILL SURVIVE

RECKLESS VS CAREFUL, CAREFUL WILL SURVIVE

From the environs of Lebanon County to the halls of the White House, our government leaders have demonstrated the meaning of the term RECKLESS.  In recent weeks both the  President and Vice-President of the United States, our highest public officials, have acted in defiance of their own government health officials by not wearing masks or social distancing from others, while in public.  

Across the country as the weather warms and pandemic restrictions are eased, people are flocking to beaches, parks and venues that had been forbidden for months. Unfortunately many have relaxed their guard and have not taken the necessary precautions to avoid COVID-19. The reckless behavior modeled by national leaders is a tragic mistake and will lead to needless illness and death for thousands of Americans. 

Locally the Lebanon County Commissioners Bill Ames and Bob Philips, along with state representative Frank Ryan and  state senator David Arnold  collaborated with other public officials in an effort to "open Lebanon County" before the state pandemic guidelines would permit. I was very disappointed that these public servants would be drawn into such reckless decisions.  They demonstrated poor judgment and did not set a good example for the public to follow. 

COVID-19 is killing us by the thousands and you give the "finger" to efforts to protect us. Shame on you for such arrogance.  I believe you and all that act as you do will pay a very dear price for what you have done, as the true nature of this pandemic unfolds.  

Social distancing and wearing a mask when near others in the public square are acts of love and consideration for the other person, as well as an act of self preservation.  

Recently, a colleague of mine visited a local market here in Lebanon County and noted with concern that none of the employees were wearing masks.  Upon inquiring about the STATE MANDATE for wearing masks and why the person was not using one, the employee said "God will protect me". 

According to a recent press report a local church was planning a regular church service with NO MASKS OR SOCIAL DISTANCING required. Also a local sit-down restaurant was advertising that it was open in violation of State COVID-19 GUIDELINES. This kind of arrogance and oppositional defiance will get people killed. 

You dare COVID-19 and it will find you.  This virus is relentless and will track you down if you act in a reckless fashion and it will show no mercy. 

Maybe God does NOT protect the reckless. 

BEES, BIRDS AND WILDFLOWERS DON'T CARE

We humans are dying from COVID-19 by the thousands, but the rest of the natural world continues on, unperturbed. It is almost as if we did not really exist. Wildlife moves back into parks and towns; and sunrises and sunsets suddenly are more noticeable.  Blue sky is now more blue and the stars are actually visible and brighter.

The wildflowers are blooming, the birds are singing and the bees are fleeting from one flower to another collecting nectar and pollen.  They act like they do not have a care in the world, because they don't. Their world has not really changed.

George R. Stewart wrote the book EARTH ABIDES in 1949 in which he describes the after effects of a pandemic that kills 99.9+% of the human race. His narrative is written from the perspective of an ecologist and he describes what would happen to the United States, if humans were plucked from the planet.  He muses that the only creatures on the planet who genuinely mourn the demise of man, are the three species of the human louse.  He describes wildlife, domestic pets, and farm animals as pausing for a bit, adapting to the absence of humans and moving on. 

Rather sobering, isn't it.

Fortunately for us the COVID-19 pandemic is a lot less severe; and most humans will survive to assess the damage; with the hope of a better prepared future.  But we will never be the same. Modern humans have not faced a virus this contagious and deadly before. Our contentious attitude toward its spread, its treatment, its effects and the economic consequences it is creating, do not bode well for a unified world solution.

I just turned 80 years of age.  It would be cool if  I could come back every couple of years to see how humans have progressed.  It seems unlikely I will be granted such a wish, but we do not really know what is in store for us humans beyond the grave.

WHAT, NO FOOTBALL?

In the Fall of 2019 my wife and I attended two of Penn State's home football games. Since I am handicapped,  I go in a wheel chair. The Pitt game was sold out, but I was able to wrangle two handicapped seats and we both went in wheelchairs. I love watching football, but there will be no more cheering with 100,000 screaming Penn State fans in Beaver Stadium for the for-seeable future.

COVID-19 has stopped all major  sports events the world over. No-one wants to talk about the major sports in the United States because there are billions of dollars at stake and the fan base is huge.  This virus is very contagious and we are just beginning to figure out how it behaves.  Sitting next to total strangers in a huge stadium or arena has been sports for the past 100 years, but no more.  

I do not believe any of the major sports will return to their former glory, until there is a massive testing program and a vaccine; and that will take years. With all the money involved it will be really interesting to see to what lengths the professional baseball, football, hockey and basketball leagues will go to salvage their investments  

Colleges and universities also have a big investment in infrastructure, student athletes and the paid bureaucracies needed to run major sports programs.  I was wondering as I listened to the stories about the recent NFL Draft whether any of the kids being selected will ever play the game.

We have had season tickets for the Gretna Theater for many years. There will not be any shows in this famous open-air venue this summer.  I will miss the after-show parties at the Hall Of Philosophy.

What about movies? Who is going to sit in a dark theater next to total strangers and watch a movie for 2 hours? Most of us won't, because we have no idea whether COVID-19 may be sitting in the seat next to us.

My grandson and I spent the month of February traveling through Florida in a 24-foot motorhome. We visited the Kennedy Space Center, Disney World, the Everglades, attended a Pirates vs Bluejays baseball game and stopped in the Smokey Mountains on the way north. We arrived home March 10, just in time to watch the World fall apart. Great trip, but sadly, none of us will be able to repeat the same trip for a very long time.

COVID-19 has changed our lives for ever and our success as a species will depend on how well we respond and cope with the many changes this tiny life form has unleashed. 

DONALD IS TRAPPED IN A ROOM OF MIRRORS

The President of the United States controls the politics of the country at the moment, whether we like it or not. 

Donald was elected President in 2016 because he promised a needy segment of the American population that he would help them when he said "I will take care of you".  These people desperate for a "champion" believed him and voted to elect him to lead the country.  His most ardent supporters, mostly white conservative Christians, continue to believe him and make up his "base" to this day. Over the last 3 years the Republican Party has gradually become Donald's Party with his "base" making up its core.  

For historical reference I will admit that I was Republican until the 1990's', now registered as a Democrat, but I am really an Independent. I believe in good government that is honest, just, works for people, provides useful services and protects the least among us.  

Donald elicits a wide variety of emotions--- adulation from his base of supporters, fear from his colleagues and hatred from his opponents.  I have another reaction---I feel sorry for him.

Donald is a 73 year-old man who appears to  have never really experienced a positive emotional connection with another person.

As a science educator I encountered students in my classes that fit Donald's behavior pattern.  In today's public schools, were he a middle school student, he would have an IEP (Individualized Educational Program) and receive some kind of remedial services. He would be described as a "special needs student" and would receive individualized training to help him cope with his deficits or handicaps.

I do not know if Donald ever received any remedial help with his handicaps that he exhibits all the time.  It is obvious that he has limited  positive skills in dealing with people, so I have to assume he never received any help.

So what do I mean by handicaps? Donald has often been described as a narcissist (a person who exhibits an excessive admiration of oneself).  Being self-centered is a common thread throughout  the human species, but Donald's condition is way beyond normal. He constantly craves and sometimes demands approval and admiration, often complaining when he does not receive what he desires.

He does not have the capacity to admit mistakes or errors.  That is another section of his handicap. Since, like the rest of us, he makes mistakes but can't admit them, so he resorts to being a bully.  When confronted with a mistake he often deflects by denying it, blaming the error on someone else or changing the subject. His mind appears to be so fragile that for him to apologize for a mistake, he seems almost on the verge of a mental breakdown, so for cover he resorts to name calling, putdowns and temper tantrums.  He has probably done this since he was a child. 

This is classic behavior for some special needs children.  Growing up these kids quickly discover what works for them. If they don't get what they want, a meltdown or tantrum in front of guests or extended  family, will get  Mommy and Daddy's attention.  Parents in this situation often go to great lengths to avoid the embarrassment of an out of control child.  I believe this is how Donald performs in the White House and why he gets away with behavior most of us would not tolerate in our own small children.

Donald does not show empathy for others. This is another one of his deficits. He does not appear capable of, as we might say "walking in someone else's shoes".  He feels no-one 's pain or fear or joy or love or compassion. That part of his brain is gone and was probably never there.  As a result he can assault a woman sexually, send migrant children sick with COVID-19 back to their home country, deny health care to sick minorities and lie constantly.  He shows no remorse for the terrible things he says or does to other people, because he has none.

Sadly, I believe HE CAN NOT CHANGE, BECAUSE HIS MIND WILL NOT LET HIM.  Donald is a scared old man trapped in a room of mirrors where he sees only himself. He would like to find a way out, but can't. 

Donald is in the most powerful position on the planet and is emotionally unable to lead humanity through these most perilous of times.

God help us.

  

THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAS PREDICTABLE

To Fellow members of the Human Species,

This is a rather crude chart I made in 1984 when I was a science educator.  I created it to illustrate what could happen if the population of humans continued its exponential increase into the future.  I warned my students that "you may in your lifetime see some of the options this chart presents.” I did not expect I would live long enough to experience them myself.

TRENDS OVER TIME---

The RED CURVE is human population growth over time. At the beginning of modern agriculture about 10,000 years ago there were perhaps one million people on planet Earth.  That is probably about the number the planet could sustain as hunters and gatherers.    Agriculture allowed for organized  settlements that provided increased safety and a  reliable food supply. The population of humans increased gradually as modern civilization progressed, but did not rise sharply until modern medicine came on the scene in the 1800's.  The human population in 1984 was 4.7 billion.  Today it is 7.7 billion.

The GREEN CURVE is agriculture.  Over time our creativity and the Earth's natural resources have combined to provide us with a generous variety of plant and animal food items that we have used to keep ourselves well fed and generally healthy.  This curve has kept ahead of human demand, but at a cost.  We are using the Earth's resources to produce our food supply, but at an unsustainable rate.  

The BROWN CURVE is the Earth's Natural Resources. Their use accelerated with the  beginning of the industrial revolution, and the onslaught of modern civilization. We have exploited oil, coal, natural gas, metals, water, land and air in our efforts to conquer the planet and use its resources to produce a lot of people with a lot of  "stuff", without considering the consequences. 

MY VIEW---WHERE WE GO FROM HERE

The above chart illustrates 3 potential results for the human population when confronted with a pandemic at a time when we are already facing a crisis around our unsustainable economic system.

CURVE STRAIGHT DOWN. The Earth Abides (book by George R. Stewart) curve that illustrates a complete collapse of the population that could lead to human extinction or perhaps results in a few people who could survive by a return to a hunting, gathering existence. 

CURVE DOWN AT 45 DEGREE ANGLE.  Sharp gradual decline. 

CURVE LEVELS OFF.  In my opinion this is the most likely result of the COVID-19 virus pandemic  The disease so far is attacking the old (like me---I am 80), the sick, and the vulnerable. Children, young adults and those who are generally healthy are avoiding or recovering from this disease. I believe the longterm effects of the disease caused by the COVID-19 virus will be to keep human numbers close to a constant and more in tune with the resources the planet offers. This is a form of natural selection that will keep the human species fit and strong going into the future. Despite the deaths of many from this disease (maybe including myself) this is the best outcome we can expect from the trauma we are experiencing.

Since we as a species do not seem to have the moral or political will to control our population growth, COVID-19 IS GOING TO DO IT FOR US.