I have followed solid waste issues for more than 30 years and I have observed that scrap recycling can give a hint to what is happening in the overall economy.
During the summer of 2008 I took a load of scrap iron to a local junk yard and was very surprised to get $8/100 lbs for the junk I had---I usually received $1-2/100 lbs. Demand had sent the price sky-rocketing.
During the economic crash in the Fall the price dropped to $1.50/100 lbs.
At the end of December I took a small amount of iron to the junkyard and the price had risen to $2.50/100 lbs.
Yesterday I called the scrap dealer and asked him about prices and he told me that today Tuesday January 6, 2009 he was raising his price to $3.75/100 lbs.
Both the Stock Market and the scrap iron business are telling us the economy bottomed out in December 2008 and the rebound has begun.
Why Iron? It is used in making durable goods like steel for cars and trucks, stoves, refrigerators, farm equipment, power equipment, food packaging, tools, etc.
Is this a real uptick or just a hiccup?---only time will tell.
I believe the upturn will be slow and gradual.
Paper is the other commodity to watch. It dropped form $150/ton in the summer of 2008 to about $60/ton by early Fall. It will go up more slowly, but if the Chinese start using boxes again the price will go up and that will be another sign of improvement.
Housing starts---Forget it.
PLANTING NATIVE WILDFLOWER AND GRASS MEADOW
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*Now is the time to start planning your strategy for planting native
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4 weeks ago
it strikes me as somewhat odd that I resort to an electronic/mechanical interface to have a conversation with a fellow human being with whom I have been aquainted for a number of years, but so be it. Better living through electrical engineering.
ReplyDeleteRe: this post: it has always puzzled and disconcerted me that we gauge economic "health" through such measures as Housing Starts; that "growth" is the desired outcome. In natural systems a dynamic equilibrium is achieved--what comes out of the system ultimately goes back in. Growth happens but it is not infinite, it is followed by death and the components return to the system. Seem to me this should be our model, not endless economic growth. If you have not read the book "Cradle to Cradle" by McDonough & Braungart, try to do so; very good.